Christmas box office isn’t what it used to be. Before the year’s end, we’ll see eight new wide releases but none are likely to reach the heights of “Spider-Man: No Way Home” ($805 million domestic) or 2022 “Avatar: The Way of Water” ($685 million).
The musical “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.), Sony’s romance “Anyone but You,” Universal’s animated “Migration,” and Amazon MGM’s “The Boys in the Boat” could rise to decent levels. “Migration” is projected to be the next highest grosser, with “Anyone” a sleeper. There’s also A24’s “The Iron Claw” and Neon’s “Ferarri.”
However, Warner Bros. has two films on which theaters pin their highest hopes: “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” — and most of all, “Wonka.” It’s the third Warners feature based on the Willy Wonka character, but with previous iterations separated by decades (the last one, “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory” starring Johnny Depp, was 2005) it’s never been a franchise.
It’s a comedy in a year that’s seen few, but those released exceeded expectations (besides “Barbie,” there’s “Cocaine Bear” and “No Hard Feelings”). It has upbeat family appeal, it’s a musical (although the marketing might not like to admit it), and most of all it has Timothée Chalamet.
Like a pre-“Titanic” Leonardo DiCaprio or pre-“La La Land” Ryan Gosling, Chalamet become a major star with a mix of interesting roles, often in smaller films (“Beautiful Boy”) and not always as the lead (“Lady Bird,” “Little Women”). He’s also starred in blockbusters like the “Dune” franchise that depended more on other factors for their success. What he hasn’t done is a major hit that hinges on him.
Chalamet’s career has demonstrated charm, a willingness to take risks, and his unique capacity as a nonconformist sex symbol. He excelled in serious dramatic roles, like his breakout “Call Me by Your Name,” but even his mother would like to see him lighten up. (The actor said his mom reacted to “Wonka” by saying, “It’s nice to see you smile.”)
That curiosity value — he smiles? he sings? he dances? — helps. Unlike many major stars, it’s a role that represents the risk of doing something different. That’s a plus in a year when the public demonstrated disinterest in sequel characters played by Harrison Ford, Tom Cruise, a host of Marvel actors, and the “Fast X” ensemble. (It will also benefit the performance of a surer thing with “Dune 2” in March, an expensive sequel initially scheduled for release before “Wonka.”)
“The Greatest Showman,” the musical that starred Hugh Jackman as P.T. Barnum, became a sleeper holiday hit in 2016 with $174 million domestic. “Wonka” seems to have a similar, old-fashioned appeal. Other broad-appeal, family-interest Christmas comps might include “Mary Poppins Returns” (also $174 million) and the two “Sing” films.
Warners opened “Wonka” in 40 territories last week to an initial $43 million. In the U.K., it did nearly $9 million, ahead of the “Paddington” movies that were huge hits there. That’s a terrific start. In the U.S./Canada, opening projection is in the $35 million-$40 million range — excellent for a non-franchise, pre-Christmas weekend.
Recent underperforming musicals like “Cats” and “Annie” introduced trepidation, but the “Wonka” reviews are good enough (68 Metacritic). Similar past Christmas hits have either had the same level (generally positive) to worse; “Showman” was only 45.
Until recent weeks, the consensus has been the “Aquaman” sequel would dominate the season. The 2018 original opened pre-Christmas to $67 million for a $335 million domestic total and $1.15 billion worldwide, where it could still excel. However, stateside audiences have been disenchanted by sequels and by DC Comics, Marvel, and other FX-driven fantasy stories in particular.
The much-delayed DC entry starring Jason Momoa remains unscreened a week before its initial international dates, with a domestic review embargo to follow. It all suggests, but doesn’t prove, concern over audience reaction — and if it grosses $200 million domestic, that would be a victory.