September should accomplish something that summer 2024 did not, although it made a valiant effort. Box office should improve against last September by at least $200 million, with the potential for a $700 million total. If that’s the case, summer will deserve some credit for providing a strong baseline.
On the surface, it’s not a good look. Summer 2024 was 10 percent lower than last year — a period that, with unadjusted ticket prices, was the lowest-grossing pre-Covid summer in this century. May and June were down 15 percent from 2023, but July and August fell only five percent thanks to “Deadpool vs. Wolverine” (Disney), this summer’s big Marvel release.
Yes, 2024 was the first summer after the strikes, but 2023 and 2024 were about the same in major wide releases — a little more than 30. This year saw two $600 million+ releases (Disney with “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool”), compared to one last year (“Barbie”). Both 2024 hits ultimately grossed more than Greta Gerwig’s smash.
Even with summer’s underperformance, it was enough to slash the year-to-date comparison to less than 15 percent. At the end of April, that decline was a catastrophic 22 percent. That leaves the next four months to do the heavy lifting, with September setting the standard.
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) and “Transformers One” (Paramount), likely to be the month’s two biggest grossers, both exemplify formulas that were critical this summer. They build on previous successes while feeling fresh rather than derivative.
Tim Burton’s sequel to his 1988 hit hopes to continue the summer trend of top franchise titles improving on previous results. (Adjusted to current prices, the original grossed about $250 million domestic.) It should open to $100 million or more this weekend in the U.S./Canada, helped by access to higher-price premium screens.
Something that separated summer 2024 from the prior year was fewer titles budgeted over $150 million, improving the chance for studio profit. The “Beetlejuice” sequel cost $100 million and, based on pre-release projections, it might follow the summer trend of struggling for foreign returns.
“Transformers One” (September 19) hits the sweet spot for animation that also elevated the summer, representing about one third of the summer’s total (around $1.2 billion). It should be the month’s second-biggest opener with the potential for $50 million and a strong multiple. Universal’s animated “The Wild Robot” (September 26) is an original and trickier to project. It premieres at Toronto in a few days. It might also have a shot at a $20 million start.
Led by “Inside Out 2” and “Despicable Me 4,” this summer saw an unusually high number of top films gross more than three times their opening weekends. This suggests an increasingly viable mutual existence with PVOD releases.
Blumhouse’s “Speak No Evil” (Universal) also has a shot at a $20 million opening. Horror was a significant summer contributor with about $500 million, led by Paramount’s “A Quiet Place: Day One.” Horror has become more mainstream, with inventive original efforts like Neon’s “Longlegs” getting the benefit.
Something missing from September is Disney. That studio returned to summer dominance with over $1.5 billion in domestic gross. Its return is good for the industry, but it’s also good to see other companies sustain a month.
About a dozen other wide releases, including several from independents, could surprise, including some event releases from Fathom. Summer holdovers like “Deadpool,” Alien: Romulus,” “Twisters,” “Reagan,” and more could add as much as $150 million to the total, all increasing the chances of $700 million or more. That would take year-over-year to -10 percent. While there’s little chance of reaching 2023’s $9.1 billion, the drop no longer looks as dire.