A year ago, what were the odds that the top-grossing film out of Sundance 2024 would be one starring and executive produced by 93-year-old June Squibb?
Magnolia acquired Josh Margolin’s feature debut “Thelma” right at the end of the festival — one of a few acquisitions that closed during its run. Released in June, it’s grossed $9.1 million in the U.S./Canada. That makes it, for now, the top hit out of the 2024.
Why the “for now”? Steven Soderbergh’s “Presence,” a $5 million Neon acquisition also out of the Sundance 2024 Premiere section, debuts in wide release Friday. Although regarded as a niche title, it could pass $9 million. (Also soon to come is “Love Me” with Kristin Stewart, set for January 31.)
“A Real Pain,” which Searchlight bought for worldwide release for $10 million out of the U.S. Dramatic section, stands at a $8.1 million domestic since its release November 1. Disney stopped reporting its grosses last weekend, suggesting it has topped out. (It has been available for home viewing for several weeks and added Hulu streaming last Friday.) But with Kieran Culkin as an Oscar Supporting Actor favorite, it could return to theaters and best “Thelma.”
Between those two titles is the Midnight section-premiere “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24), with an $8.3 million gross. With international grosses, the Kristen Stewart-starring crime drama-love story slightly edges the other two with $12.8 million.
Box office is never the sole measure of success for festival debuts, which elevate talented new filmmakers and help revitalize the specialized theatrical market. However, Sundance 2024 box office reflects a major drop from the year prior, which saw a $100 million total. In 2024, the total is $57 million (“Presence” and “Love Me” notwithstanding). These figures don’t reflect the unreported post-theatrical revenues (VOD rentals, streaming sales), which can provide a significant lift to low-budget titles.
Of the $100 million in 2023, half came from Australian horror film “Talk to Me,” acquired by A24. In 2024, about half of the $57 million came from “Thelma,” “A Real Pain,” and “Love Lies Bleeding.” The other $26 million was spread across 40-50 titles.
That doesn’t sound good, but another factor must be considered: At Sundance, the biggest buys and some of its shiniest movies went to streaming, where box office is n/a.
Netflix had the two most expensive acquisitions. Richard Linklater’s “Hit Man” showed at Sundance after it bought the film for $20 million at Toronto 2023; it made a splash on the streamer. Netflix also spent $17 million on Sundance 2024 acquisition title “It’s What Inside” out of the Midnight section; it peaked at #5 on Netflix U.S. top 10 movie chart.
In surveying 2024’s complete lineup, most films found some sort of distribution. Include the two upcoming releases and it appears at least 14 films will have domestic grosses over $1 million. That’s three more than the previous year.
At least eight titles should pass $4 million, again an increase. These include “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM, acquired for $15 million, gross $5.2 million), “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24, $5.0 million), “Didi” (Focus, $4.8 million), and “In a Violent Nature” (IFC, $4.2 million). Two others reached $2 million or a little more — “American Society of Magical Negroes” (Focus) and “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics).
In the $1 million-$2 million range are three films with disappointing results — “The Outrun” and “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics, the latter potentially with revived chances if it scores an Oscar International Film nomination) and “Sasquatch Warrior” (Bleecker Street).
No documentaries appear among these, although two very expensive acquisitions — “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros. Discovery, $15 million) and “Will & Harper” (Netflix, $10 million) — had some theatrical play, the former significantly via Fathom Events, but grosses were not reported.
Some top distributors released films that fell short of $1 million. These include “Stress Positions,” “Seeking Mavis Beacon,” and “Handling the Undead (Neon), “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions), and most significantly “A Different Man” (A24, this despite widespread acclaim and significant distributor support),
In the post-streaming world, it’s unlikely that Sundance will return to its culturally dominant heyday even as it warrants elevated interest from acquisition executives. That said: Last year’s U.S. Dramatic Grand Jury Prize winner “In the Summers” wasn’t acquired (by Music Box Films) until June. Its reported gross was under $100,000.